THE CONSIDERATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND MAINTENANCE RELATED DECISIONS | Problems of Management in the 21st Century

Error message

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_names::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_date::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_date_part::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_number::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_group::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Declaration of csl_layout::render() should be compatible with csl_rendering_element::render($data, $mode = NULL) in module_load_include() (line 330 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/includes/module.inc).

Strict warning: Only variables should be passed by reference in theme_biblio_tabular() (line 276 of /home/scientia/domains/scientiasocialis.lt/public_html/pmc/modules/biblio/includes/biblio_theme.inc).

THE CONSIDERATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND MAINTENANCE RELATED DECISIONS

Title	THE CONSIDERATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND MAINTENANCE RELATED DECISIONS
Publication Type	Journal Article
Year of Publication	2011
Authors	Hegedűs, C, Kosztyán, ZT
Journal	Problems of Management in the 21st Century
Volume	1
Start Page	46-59
Date Published	May/2011
Type of Article	Original article
ISSN	2029-6932
Other Numbers	ICID: 949991
Keywords	forecast, risk-based maintenance
Abstract	In the field of operations management, most decisions are seen as being based on measurement results. However, every measurement has some uncertainty and therefore managerial decisions can be incorrect. Measurement uncertainty can cause particularly large losses in the case of maintenance decisions, where decision error can cause the breakdown of the entire production or service process. Taking measurement uncertainty into consideration the losses can be decreased. The standards, technical reports and guides dealing with measurement uncertainty use probability approach and focus on the metrology aspect. They do not support a risk based decision based on the forecast of the observed characteristics. In the proposed risk based model the realized (or lost) revenue is treated along with the occurred costs in order to maximize the profit with the help of analytic calculation and simulations. This paper suggests that by treating measurement results as a time series the time of probable failure can be predicted at a given confidence level, this can support the scheduling of maintenance tasks. The uncertainty of measurement and the uncertainty of forecasting can be treated in the same model.
URL	https://oaji.net/articles/2014/450-1391887397.pdf
DOI	10.33225/pmc/11.01.46
Refereed Designation	Refereed
Full Text